The Fine Line Between Hope & Delusion: The Gamble of President Obama’s Afghan Policy
Posted: Tuesday, June 28, 2011
by Edward Rhymes
Listening to John McCain and then President Obama talk about the “isolationists” who challenge their view of reality when it comes to Afghan policy, puts me in mind of what a compulsive gambler sounds like: Ok, Ok this is the horse… No, no, no, this is the game… Wait, wait, this is the roll of the dice that will finally cause my ship to come in.
Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN), the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said it this way: "It's exceedingly difficult to conclude that our vast expenditures in Afghanistan represent a rational strategy." The vague and ambiguous nature of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan lends itself to a rather murky understanding of how to disengage or extract ourselves from this war. The problem with not being able to clearly define what victory (or mission accomplished) is, is that it simultaneously makes failure less clear --- if I never say what winning is, you can’t say when I’ve lost.
I will give the President this much, he did one of the best jobs of eloquently stating practically nothing that I have ever heard. Yes, there is some inherent risk in any foreign policy venture, but there seems to be something so…. what’s the word… compulsive, about our Afghan policy. Compulsive or problem gambling is defined as an urge to gamble despite harmful negative consequences or a desire to stop.
What are the negative consequences of this protracted campaign? After 10 years the Afghan government has not garnered much support and has elicited even less confidence from its citizens; even though we have touted the “supposed” stability that we have brought to Afghanistan, more than 250,000 Afghans have fled their villages during the past two years of fighting (according to a new report from Refugees International); a weak and undisciplined Afghan military and an increasingly less stable Pakistan.
So, at the end of the day, isn’t that what the President is doing? He is gambling that we will accomplish what no other foreign occupying power has ever accomplished in Afghanistan. He is gambling on an extremely weak Afghan central government and on an extremely dubious Afghan president in the person of Karzai. Ok, ok, just one more year… no, no, no just two more years… wait, wait just three more years and we would have accomplished….. What?
Then again, that's the problem with compulsive gamblers, they keep waiting for that elusive ship to come in, instead of recognizing that the ship has sailed.
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Top-level comments on this article: (2 total)Wow! Very well put.Thanks for commenting Philip. Thanks for joining my fan club and welcome to SearchWarp.
Ed! So good to see your face here again. Very well articulated as always.Thanks Jean. It feels good to be back and appreciate your warm welcome.
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